Dave Hedley v Lyndon Cheetham (Mon 04 Feb 2019)
Match won by Lyndon Cheetham. Result: 11-9,3-11,10-11,8-11.
Starting level for
Dave Hedley:
1,804, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Lyndon Cheetham:
2,048, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Lyndon Cheetham to win as he is currently playing
14% better than Dave Hedley.
Lyndon Cheetham won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyndon Cheetham played
27% better than Dave Hedley in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lyndon Cheetham actually played at a level of
2,167 and Dave Hedley at a level of
1,705. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.8% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham changes to +4.3% and Dave Hedley changes to -5.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham becomes +2.8% and for Dave Hedley becomes -3.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham is +2.1% and for Dave Hedley is -2.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyndon Cheetham: 91%, Dave Hedley: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyndon Cheetham: 86%, Dave Hedley: 76%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Dave Hedley:
1,757, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Lyndon Cheetham:
2,087, level confidence: 86%.