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David Henderson v Peter Richardson (Wed 30 Jan 2019)

Match won by David Henderson. Result: 13-15,15-3,16-14,15-9.

Starting level for David Henderson: 2,501, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Richardson: 2,334, level confidence: 66%.
David Henderson to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Peter Richardson.

David Henderson won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Henderson played 31% better than Peter Richardson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Henderson actually played at a level of 2,768 and Peter Richardson at a level of 2,109. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Henderson changes to +8.9% and Peter Richardson changes to -10.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Henderson becomes +4.2% and for Peter Richardson becomes -4.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for David Henderson is +3.1% and for Peter Richardson is -3.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Henderson: 87%, Peter Richardson: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Henderson: 79%, Peter Richardson: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Henderson: 2,576, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Peter Richardson: 2,250, level confidence: 73%.