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John Hughes v Paul Ekins (Tue 05 Feb 2019)

Match won by John Hughes. Result: 15-11,15-12,8-15,15-9.

Starting level for John Hughes: 2,061, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Ekins: 2,333, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Paul Ekins to win as he is currently playing 13% better than John Hughes.

John Hughes won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John Hughes played 21% better than Paul Ekins in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like John Hughes actually played at a level of 2,412 and Paul Ekins at a level of 1,994. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Hughes changes to +16% and Paul Ekins changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John Hughes becomes +7% and for Paul Ekins becomes -6.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for John Hughes is +5.2% and for Paul Ekins is -4.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Hughes: 85%, Paul Ekins: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Hughes: 73%, Paul Ekins: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for John Hughes: 2,166, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Paul Ekins: 2,225, level confidence: 75%.