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Rui Soares v Diego Gobbi (Tue 29 Jan 2019)

Match won by Rui Soares. Result: 12-10,11-6,11-8.

Starting level for Rui Soares: 26,604, level confidence: 41%.
Starting level for Diego Gobbi: 16,162, level confidence: 57%.
Rui Soares to win as he is currently playing 65% better than Diego Gobbi.

Rui Soares won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rui Soares played 46% better than Diego Gobbi in this match.

In this case, Rui Soares played at level 24,185 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Rui Soares would normally have been playing at level 24,777 (based on typical behaviour), Diego Gobbi played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rui Soares changes to 0% and Diego Gobbi changes to +1.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rui Soares becomes 0% and for Diego Gobbi becomes +0.6%.

Given Diego Gobbi's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 32% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Rui Soares is 0% and for Diego Gobbi is +0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rui Soares: 64%, Diego Gobbi: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rui Soares: 60%, Diego Gobbi: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rui Soares: 26,671, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Diego Gobbi: 16,259, level confidence: 71%.