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Mark Stratford v Mark Henson (Thu 07 Feb 2019)

Match won by Mark Henson. Result: 11-15,5-15,15-14,3-15.

Starting level for Mark Stratford: 1,265, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Mark Henson: 1,206, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Mark Stratford to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Mark Henson.

Mark Henson won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Henson played 41% better than Mark Stratford in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Henson actually played at a level of 1,467 and Mark Stratford at a level of 1,040. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Henson changes to +17% and Mark Stratford changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Henson becomes +9% and for Mark Stratford becomes -10.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Mark Henson is +6.7% and for Mark Stratford is -7.7%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mark Stratford is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Henson: 90%, Mark Stratford: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Henson: 74%, Mark Stratford: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Stratford: 1,203, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Mark Henson: 1,285, level confidence: 74%.