Alan Macnair v Peter Ginty (Thu 07 Feb 2019)
Match won by Peter Ginty. Result: 13-15,6-15,15-11,14-15.
Starting level for
Alan Macnair:
1,046, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Peter Ginty:
1,163, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Peter Ginty to win as he is currently playing
11% better than Alan Macnair.
Peter Ginty won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Ginty played
22% better than Alan Macnair in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Ginty actually played at a level of
1,219 and Alan Macnair at a level of
998. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.9% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Ginty changes to +4.4% and Alan Macnair changes to -4.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Ginty becomes +3.5% and for Alan Macnair becomes -3.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Peter Ginty is +2.6% and for Alan Macnair is -2.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Ginty: 88%, Alan Macnair: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Ginty: 84%, Alan Macnair: 82%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Alan Macnair:
1,016, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Peter Ginty:
1,191, level confidence: 84%.