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Cliff Enslin v Peter Richardson (Wed 06 Feb 2019)

Match won by Cliff Enslin. Result: 9-15,15-13,12-15,15-12,15-11.

Starting level for Cliff Enslin: 1,816, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Peter Richardson: 2,251, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Peter Richardson to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Cliff Enslin.

Cliff Enslin won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cliff Enslin played 8% better than Peter Richardson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cliff Enslin actually played at a level of 2,096 and Peter Richardson at a level of 1,950. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cliff Enslin changes to +14% and Peter Richardson changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cliff Enslin becomes +6.5% and for Peter Richardson becomes -5.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Cliff Enslin is +4.9% and for Peter Richardson is -3.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cliff Enslin: 77%, Peter Richardson: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cliff Enslin: 67%, Peter Richardson: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cliff Enslin: 1,904, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Peter Richardson: 2,203, level confidence: 73%.