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Matt Bunting v Ian Salmond (Wed 06 Feb 2019)

Match won by Ian Salmond. Result: 9-15,13-15,5-15.

Starting level for Matt Bunting: 1,327, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ian Salmond: 1,774, level confidence: 48%.
Ian Salmond to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Matt Bunting.

Ian Salmond won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ian Salmond played 67% better than Matt Bunting in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ian Salmond actually played at a level of 1,981 and Matt Bunting at a level of 1,188. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10% and 10% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ian Salmond changes to +10% and Matt Bunting changes to -6.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ian Salmond becomes +5.1% and for Matt Bunting becomes -4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Ian Salmond is +3.8% and for Matt Bunting is -3.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ian Salmond: 69%, Matt Bunting: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ian Salmond: 62%, Matt Bunting: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matt Bunting: 1,286, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Ian Salmond: 1,840, level confidence: 62%.