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Paul Garbutt v David Wylie Clarke (Fri 08 Feb 2019)

Match won by David Wylie Clarke. Result: 15-9,17-15,11-15,6-15,7-15.

Starting level for Paul Garbutt: 2,016, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for David Wylie Clarke: 2,246, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
David Wylie Clarke to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Paul Garbutt.

David Wylie Clarke won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Wylie Clarke played 13% better than Paul Garbutt in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Wylie Clarke actually played at a level of 2,265 and Paul Garbutt at a level of 1,999. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Wylie Clarke changes to +0.5% and Paul Garbutt changes to -0.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Wylie Clarke becomes +0.4% and for Paul Garbutt becomes -0.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vintage Winter 2018/19' so the adjustment for David Wylie Clarke is 0% and for Paul Garbutt is -0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Wylie Clarke: 84%, Paul Garbutt: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Wylie Clarke: 84%, Paul Garbutt: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Garbutt: 2,004, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for David Wylie Clarke: 2,249, level confidence: 84%.