David Wallond v Alan Thomson (Fri 08 Feb 2019)
Match won by Alan Thomson. Result: 15-11,8-15,11-15,6-15.
Starting level for
David Wallond:
2,930, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Alan Thomson:
3,668, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Alan Thomson to win as he is currently playing
25% better than David Wallond.
Alan Thomson won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Thomson played
30% better than David Wallond in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Thomson actually played at a level of
3,737 and David Wallond at a level of
2,876. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.9% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.7% and 1.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Thomson changes to +1.7% and David Wallond changes to -1.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Thomson becomes +1.1% and for David Wallond becomes -1.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vintage Winter 2018/19' so the adjustment for Alan Thomson is +0.8% and for David Wallond is -0.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Thomson: 87%, David Wallond: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Thomson: 86%, David Wallond: 89%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for David Wallond:
2,903, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Alan Thomson:
3,692, level confidence: 86%.