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John Hughes v Nigel Swain (Sat 09 Feb 2019)

Match won by John Hughes. Result: 16-14,15-11,15-13.

Starting level for John Hughes: 2,153, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nigel Swain: 1,801, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
John Hughes to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Nigel Swain.

John Hughes won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John Hughes played 32% better than Nigel Swain in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like John Hughes actually played at a level of 2,265 and Nigel Swain at a level of 1,712. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Hughes changes to +4.7% and Nigel Swain changes to -3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John Hughes becomes +2.9% and for Nigel Swain becomes -2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2018/19' so the adjustment for John Hughes is +2.2% and for Nigel Swain is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Hughes: 85%, Nigel Swain: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Hughes: 81%, Nigel Swain: 90%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for John Hughes: 2,196, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Nigel Swain: 1,763, level confidence: 90%.