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Peter Richardson v Peter Wicking (Sat 09 Feb 2019)

Match won by Peter Richardson. Result: 15-8,15-11,15-5.

Starting level for Peter Richardson: 2,203, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Wicking: 1,661, level confidence: 91%. Set manually.
Peter Richardson to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Peter Wicking.

Peter Richardson won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 88% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Richardson played 88% better than Peter Wicking in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Richardson actually played at a level of 2,619 and Peter Wicking at a level of 1,397. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Richardson changes to +16% and Peter Wicking changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Richardson becomes +6.9% and for Peter Wicking becomes -6.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2018/19' so the adjustment for Peter Richardson is +5.2% and for Peter Wicking is -4.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Richardson: 85%, Peter Wicking: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Richardson: 71%, Peter Wicking: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Richardson: 2,314, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Peter Wicking: 1,585, level confidence: 80%.