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Nicolas Mueller v Tarek Shehata (Thu 29 Nov 2018)

Match won by Nicolas Mueller. Result: 13-11,11-6,4-11,11-8.

Starting level for Nicolas Mueller: 37,748, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Tarek Shehata: 19,371, level confidence: 62%.
Nicolas Mueller to win as he is currently playing 95% better than Tarek Shehata.

Nicolas Mueller won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nicolas Mueller played 20% better than Tarek Shehata in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nicolas Mueller was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 28,677 and 37,748 without affecting his level.

As Nicolas Mueller has played below his allowed range at 25,765, his level reduction is 11% before damping. On the assumption that Nicolas Mueller would normally have been playing at level 33,408 (based on typical behaviour), Tarek Shehata played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 20%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller changes to -7.2% and Tarek Shehata changes to +14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller becomes -2% and for Tarek Shehata becomes +3.6%.

Given Nicolas Mueller's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 65% has been applied to his level change.

Given Tarek Shehata's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 38% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Swiss Interclub 2018/19' so the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller is -0.9% and for Tarek Shehata is +1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nicolas Mueller: 83%, Tarek Shehata: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nicolas Mueller: 65%, Tarek Shehata: 62%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nicolas Mueller: 37,513, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Tarek Shehata: 19,797, level confidence: 62%.