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Valentin Rapp v Nicolas Mueller (Thu 10 Jan 2019)

Match won by Nicolas Mueller. Result: 7-11,11-7,11-7,2-11,5-11.

Starting level for Valentin Rapp: 21,870, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Nicolas Mueller: 36,769, level confidence: 68%.
Nicolas Mueller to win as he is currently playing 68% better than Valentin Rapp.

Nicolas Mueller won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nicolas Mueller played 15% better than Valentin Rapp in this match.

As Nicolas Mueller has played below his allowed range at 27,915, his level reduction is 10.9% before damping. On the assumption that Nicolas Mueller would normally have been playing at level 34,057 (based on typical behaviour), Valentin Rapp played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.3% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller changes to -7.4% and Valentin Rapp changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller becomes -2% and for Valentin Rapp becomes +3.2%.

Given Nicolas Mueller's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 64% has been applied to his level change.

Given Valentin Rapp's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 43% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Swiss Interclub 2018/19' so the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller is -0.9% and for Valentin Rapp is +1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nicolas Mueller: 82%, Valentin Rapp: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nicolas Mueller: 68%, Valentin Rapp: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Valentin Rapp: 22,290, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Nicolas Mueller: 36,531, level confidence: 68%.