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Diego Gobbi v Nick Freer (Thu 07 Feb 2019)

Match won by Diego Gobbi. Result: 11-6,11-6,11-5.

Starting level for Diego Gobbi: 17,433, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Nick Freer: 6,388, level confidence: 51%.
Diego Gobbi to win as he is currently playing 173% better than Nick Freer.

Diego Gobbi won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Gobbi played 94% better than Nick Freer in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Diego Gobbi was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,156 and 17,433 without affecting his level.

In this case, Diego Gobbi played at level 13,039 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Diego Gobbi would normally have been playing at level 13,711 (based on typical behaviour), Nick Freer played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi changes to 0% and Nick Freer changes to +3.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi becomes 0% and for Nick Freer becomes +1.7%.

Given Nick Freer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.6% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Diego Gobbi is 0% and for Nick Freer is +1.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Gobbi: 78%, Nick Freer: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Gobbi: 66%, Nick Freer: 60%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Diego Gobbi: 17,477, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Nick Freer: 6,480, level confidence: 60%.