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Robin Crease v Malcolm Levy (Mon 11 Feb 2019)

Match won by Malcolm Levy. Result: 8-11,3-11,4-11.

Starting level for Robin Crease: 3,218, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Malcolm Levy: 4,560, level confidence: 52%.
Malcolm Levy to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Robin Crease.

Malcolm Levy won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Malcolm Levy played 120% better than Robin Crease in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Malcolm Levy actually played at a level of 5,682 and Robin Crease at a level of 2,583. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Malcolm Levy changes to +20% and Robin Crease changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Malcolm Levy becomes +6.7% and for Robin Crease becomes -5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Malcolm Levy is +5% and for Robin Crease is -3.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Malcolm Levy: 72%, Robin Crease: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Malcolm Levy: 58%, Robin Crease: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Robin Crease: 3,097, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Malcolm Levy: 4,781, level confidence: 58%.