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Ross Glide v David Wallond (Tue 12 Feb 2019)

Match won by Ross Glide. Result: 15-11,10-15,15-7,18-16.

Starting level for Ross Glide: 4,097, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Wallond: 2,888, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Ross Glide to win as he is currently playing 42% better than David Wallond.

Ross Glide won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ross Glide played 23% better than David Wallond in this match.

As Ross Glide has played below his allowed range at 3,652, his level reduction is 3% before damping. On the assumption that Ross Glide would normally have been playing at level 3,944 (based on typical behaviour), David Wallond played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.5% and 4.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ross Glide changes to -2.5% and David Wallond changes to +4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ross Glide becomes -1.5% and for David Wallond becomes +2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Ross Glide is -1.1% and for David Wallond is +1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ross Glide: 88%, David Wallond: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ross Glide: 82%, David Wallond: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ross Glide: 4,045, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for David Wallond: 2,935, level confidence: 87%.