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Bob Tombs v Paul Nieduszynski (Tue 12 Feb 2019)

Match won by Bob Tombs. Result: 12-10,12-10,11-13,10-12,11-8.

Starting level for Bob Tombs: 2,480, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Nieduszynski: 2,121, level confidence: 66%.
Bob Tombs to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Paul Nieduszynski.

Bob Tombs won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Bob Tombs played 9% better than Paul Nieduszynski in this match.

As Bob Tombs has played below his allowed range at 2,375, his level reduction is 2.8% before damping. On the assumption that Bob Tombs would normally have been playing at level 2,463 (based on typical behaviour), Paul Nieduszynski played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.3%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Bob Tombs changes to -2.4% and Paul Nieduszynski changes to +3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Bob Tombs becomes -1.7% and for Paul Nieduszynski becomes +2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2019' so the adjustment for Bob Tombs is -1.3% and for Paul Nieduszynski is +1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Bob Tombs: 85%, Paul Nieduszynski: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Bob Tombs: 82%, Paul Nieduszynski: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Bob Tombs: 2,445, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Paul Nieduszynski: 2,154, level confidence: 79%.