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David O'Neill v Ben Peach (Thu 14 Feb 2019)

Match won by Ben Peach. Result: 6-15,4-15,8-15.

Starting level for David O'Neill: 1,639, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ben Peach: 2,134, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Ben Peach to win as he is currently playing 30% better than David O'Neill.

Ben Peach won all of the games and 71% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 150% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Peach played 150% better than David O'Neill in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Peach actually played at a level of 2,957 and David O'Neill at a level of 1,183. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 33% and 33% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Peach changes to +33% and David O'Neill changes to -28%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Peach becomes +12.6% and for David O'Neill becomes -12%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Ben Peach is +9.4% and for David O'Neill is -8.7%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that David O'Neill is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Peach: 84%, David O'Neill: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Peach: 61%, David O'Neill: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David O'Neill: 1,569, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Ben Peach: 2,332, level confidence: 61%.