Mick Biggs v Matthew Marshall (Fri 15 Feb 2019)
Match won by Matthew Marshall. Result: 10-12,8-11,11-8,9-11.
Starting level for
Mick Biggs:
7,652, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Matthew Marshall:
9,379, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing
23% better than Mick Biggs.
Matthew Marshall won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Marshall played
20% better than Mick Biggs in this match.
In this case, Matthew Marshall played at level 9,227 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Mick Biggs is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall changes to 0% and Mick Biggs changes to 0%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall becomes 0% and for Mick Biggs becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'AJ Bell British National Masters Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Marshall: 90%, Mick Biggs: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Marshall: 90%, Mick Biggs: 92%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mick Biggs:
7,651, level confidence: 92%.
Final level for Matthew Marshall:
9,365, level confidence: 90%.