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Dafydd Lewis v Douglas Jacobsson (Thu 14 Feb 2019)

Match won by Dafydd Lewis. Result: 12-15,15-12,12-15,15-7,15-11.

Starting level for Dafydd Lewis: 1,959, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,507, level confidence: 70%.
Dafydd Lewis to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Douglas Jacobsson.

Dafydd Lewis won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dafydd Lewis played 11% better than Douglas Jacobsson in this match.

As Dafydd Lewis has played below his allowed range at 1,767, his level reduction is 5.4% before damping. On the assumption that Dafydd Lewis would normally have been playing at level 1,915 (based on typical behaviour), Douglas Jacobsson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.7% and 6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dafydd Lewis changes to -4.5% and Douglas Jacobsson changes to +6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dafydd Lewis becomes -2.9% and for Douglas Jacobsson becomes +3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Dafydd Lewis is -2.2% and for Douglas Jacobsson is +2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dafydd Lewis: 85%, Douglas Jacobsson: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dafydd Lewis: 79%, Douglas Jacobsson: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dafydd Lewis: 1,914, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,548, level confidence: 77%.