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Dean Sowerby v Mark Stratford (Thu 14 Feb 2019)

Match won by Mark Stratford. Result: 15-4,10-15,6-15,10-15.

Starting level for Dean Sowerby: 1,068, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mark Stratford: 1,203, level confidence: 65%.
Mark Stratford to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Dean Sowerby.

Mark Stratford won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Stratford played 23% better than Dean Sowerby in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Stratford actually played at a level of 1,258 and Dean Sowerby at a level of 1,021. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Stratford changes to +4.3% and Dean Sowerby changes to -3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Stratford becomes +3.4% and for Dean Sowerby becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Mark Stratford is +2.5% and for Dean Sowerby is -2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Stratford: 80%, Dean Sowerby: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Stratford: 77%, Dean Sowerby: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dean Sowerby: 1,041, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Mark Stratford: 1,232, level confidence: 77%.