Thomas Whiteway v Malcolm Levy (Tue 19 Feb 2019)
Match won by Thomas Whiteway. Result: 8-11,11-9,11-7,8-11,11-8.
Starting level for
Thomas Whiteway:
5,102, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Malcolm Levy:
4,780, level confidence: 56%.
Thomas Whiteway to win as he is currently playing
7% better than Malcolm Levy.
Thomas Whiteway won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Thomas Whiteway played
9% better than Malcolm Levy in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Thomas Whiteway actually played at a level of
5,159 and Malcolm Levy at a level of
4,727. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.1% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Thomas Whiteway changes to +0.7% and Malcolm Levy changes to -1.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Thomas Whiteway becomes +0.4% and for Malcolm Levy becomes -0.6%.
Given Thomas Whiteway's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 120% has been applied to his level change.
Given Malcolm Levy's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 112% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Thomas Whiteway is 0% and for Malcolm Levy is 0%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Thomas Whiteway: 94%, Malcolm Levy: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Thomas Whiteway: 93%, Malcolm Levy: 74%.
Final level for Thomas Whiteway:
5,106, level confidence: 93%.
Final level for Malcolm Levy:
4,774, level confidence: 74%.