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Omar Mosaad v Bassel Sherin (Thu 14 Feb 2019)

Match won by Omar Mosaad. Result: 11-4,11-6,11-5.

Starting level for Omar Mosaad: 38,029, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Bassel Sherin: 17,529, level confidence: 10%.
Omar Mosaad to win as he is currently playing 117% better than Bassel Sherin.

Omar Mosaad won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Omar Mosaad played 120% better than Bassel Sherin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Omar Mosaad actually played at a level of 38,295 and Bassel Sherin at a level of 17,407. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 0.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Omar Mosaad changes to 0% and Bassel Sherin changes to -0.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Omar Mosaad becomes +0% and for Bassel Sherin becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Egyptian National Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Omar Mosaad: 87%, Bassel Sherin: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Omar Mosaad: 86%, Bassel Sherin: 31%.

Final level for Omar Mosaad: 38,038, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Bassel Sherin: 17,492, level confidence: 31%.