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Chris Simpson v Daryl Selby (Fri 15 Feb 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 11-7,8-11,14-12,3-11,8-11.

Starting level for Chris Simpson: 34,415, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Daryl Selby: 40,027, level confidence: 51%.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Chris Simpson.

Daryl Selby won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 12% better than Chris Simpson in this match.

As Daryl Selby has played below his allowed range at 39,051, his level reduction is 1.3% before damping. On the assumption that Daryl Selby would normally have been playing at level 39,787 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Simpson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.6%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to -1.2% and Chris Simpson changes to +0.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes -0.5% and for Chris Simpson becomes +0.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'AJ Bell National Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 71%, Chris Simpson: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 70%, Chris Simpson: 90%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Simpson: 34,613, level confidence: 90%.
Final level for Daryl Selby: 39,768, level confidence: 70%.