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Ted Jeal v Daryl Selby (Tue 19 Feb 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 5-11,11-8,7-11,11-6,4-11.

Starting level for Ted Jeal: 11,909, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Daryl Selby: 40,216, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 238% better than Ted Jeal.

Daryl Selby won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 13% better than Ted Jeal in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Daryl Selby was taking it easy by anything up to 28%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 18,957 and 40,216 without affecting his level.

As Daryl Selby has played below his allowed range at 16,002, his level reduction is 18% before damping. On the assumption that Daryl Selby would normally have been playing at level 28,789 (based on typical behaviour), Ted Jeal played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 46%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.7% and 23% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to -8.3% and Ted Jeal changes to +23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes -2.1% and for Ted Jeal becomes +5.8%.

Given Daryl Selby's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 68% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Ted Jeal's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Kent NW Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Daryl Selby is -0.9% and for Ted Jeal is +3.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 90%, Ted Jeal: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 52%, Ted Jeal: 49%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ted Jeal: 12,317, level confidence: 49%.
Final level for Daryl Selby: 39,781, level confidence: 52%.