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Diego Gobbi v Jason Varrie (Tue 19 Feb 2019)

Match won by Diego Gobbi. Result: 11-3,11-3,11-2.

Starting level for Diego Gobbi: 17,711, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Jason Varrie: 8,661, level confidence: 63%.
Diego Gobbi to win as he is currently playing 104% better than Jason Varrie.

Diego Gobbi won all of the games and 80% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Gobbi played 313% better than Jason Varrie in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Diego Gobbi actually played at a level of 25,155 and Jason Varrie at a level of 6,098. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 42% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi changes to +28% and Jason Varrie changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi becomes +6.3% and for Jason Varrie becomes -7.1%.

Given Diego Gobbi's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 35% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jason Varrie's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2019' so the adjustment for Diego Gobbi is +3.5% and for Jason Varrie is -4.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Gobbi: 78%, Jason Varrie: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Gobbi: 55%, Jason Varrie: 56%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Diego Gobbi: 18,305, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Jason Varrie: 8,456, level confidence: 56%.