Steve Baker v Allister Crossley (Wed 20 Feb 2019)
Match won by Steve Baker. Result: 15-8,15-14,15-5.
Starting level for
Steve Baker:
2,339, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Allister Crossley:
1,691, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Steve Baker to win as he is currently playing
38% better than Allister Crossley.
Steve Baker won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Baker played
67% better than Allister Crossley in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steve Baker actually played at a level of
2,568 and Allister Crossley at a level of
1,541. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.8% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.2% and 8.2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Baker changes to +7.3% and Allister Crossley changes to -8.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Baker becomes +3.7% and for Allister Crossley becomes -4.6%.
Given Steve Baker's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 45% has been applied to his level change.
Given Allister Crossley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Steve Baker is +1% and for Allister Crossley is -1.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Baker: 89%, Allister Crossley: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Baker: 81%, Allister Crossley: 77%.
Final level for Steve Baker:
2,363, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Allister Crossley:
1,667, level confidence: 77%.