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Steve Baker v Mason McLarney (Mon 25 Feb 2019)

Match won by Mason McLarney. Result: 11-10,7-11,8-11,10-11.

Starting level for Steve Baker: 2,363, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mason McLarney: 2,690, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Mason McLarney to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Steve Baker.

Mason McLarney won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mason McLarney played 23% better than Steve Baker in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mason McLarney actually played at a level of 2,798 and Steve Baker at a level of 2,272. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mason McLarney changes to +3.8% and Steve Baker changes to -3.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mason McLarney becomes +2.4% and for Steve Baker becomes -2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Mason McLarney is +1.8% and for Steve Baker is -1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mason McLarney: 89%, Steve Baker: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mason McLarney: 86%, Steve Baker: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steve Baker: 2,317, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Mason McLarney: 2,733, level confidence: 86%.