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Lyndon Cheetham v Nathan Quilliam (Mon 25 Feb 2019)

Match won by Lyndon Cheetham. Result: 9-11,11-5,11-4,10-11,11-7.

Starting level for Lyndon Cheetham: 1,996, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nathan Quilliam: 1,992, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Lyndon Cheetham to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Nathan Quilliam.

Lyndon Cheetham won 60% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 37% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyndon Cheetham played 17% better than Nathan Quilliam in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lyndon Cheetham actually played at a level of 2,154 and Nathan Quilliam at a level of 1,846. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham changes to +7.9% and Nathan Quilliam changes to -7.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham becomes +4.2% and for Nathan Quilliam becomes -4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham is +3.1% and for Nathan Quilliam is -3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyndon Cheetham: 87%, Nathan Quilliam: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyndon Cheetham: 80%, Nathan Quilliam: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lyndon Cheetham: 2,055, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Nathan Quilliam: 1,931, level confidence: 82%.