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Allister Crossley v Chris Cave (Mon 25 Feb 2019)

Match won by Chris Cave. Result: 7-11,7-11,11-4,6-11.

Starting level for Allister Crossley: 1,670, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Cave: 1,708, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Chris Cave to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Allister Crossley.

Chris Cave won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Cave played 23% better than Allister Crossley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Cave actually played at a level of 1,874 and Allister Crossley at a level of 1,522. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Cave changes to +9.6% and Allister Crossley changes to -9.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Cave becomes +5% and for Allister Crossley becomes -4.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Chris Cave is +3.8% and for Allister Crossley is -3.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Cave: 84%, Allister Crossley: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Cave: 77%, Allister Crossley: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Allister Crossley: 1,609, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Chris Cave: 1,770, level confidence: 77%.