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Name withheld v Peter Richardson (Tue 26 Feb 2019)

Match won by Name withheld. Result: 15-13,15-11,15-10.

Starting level for Name withheld: 1,612, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Peter Richardson: 2,392, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Peter Richardson to win as he is currently playing 48% better than Name withheld.

Name withheld won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Name withheld played 40% better than Peter Richardson in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Name withheld actually played at a level of 2,322 and Peter Richardson at a level of 1,661. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 44% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 35% and 35% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Name withheld changes to +35% and Peter Richardson changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Name withheld becomes +14.6% and for Peter Richardson becomes -9.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Name withheld is +11% and for Peter Richardson is -7%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Name withheld is limited to +10% and Peter Richardson is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Name withheld: 74%, Peter Richardson: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Name withheld: 52%, Peter Richardson: 59%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Name withheld: 1,771, level confidence: 52%.
Final level for Peter Richardson: 2,275, level confidence: 59%.