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Patrick Rooney v Nick Wall (Tue 26 Feb 2019)

Match won by Nick Wall. Result: 9-11,3-11,9-11.

Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 28,028, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nick Wall: 23,387, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Nick Wall.

Nick Wall won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Wall played 56% better than Patrick Rooney in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Wall actually played at a level of 32,022 and Patrick Rooney at a level of 20,470. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Wall changes to +33% and Patrick Rooney changes to -31%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Wall becomes +6.9% and for Patrick Rooney becomes -6.3%.

Given Nick Wall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 45% has been applied to his level change.

Given Patrick Rooney's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 52% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Nick Wall is +3.6% and for Patrick Rooney is -3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Wall: 87%, Patrick Rooney: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Wall: 63%, Patrick Rooney: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Rooney: 27,426, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Nick Wall: 24,187, level confidence: 63%.