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Steve Baker v David Freer (Wed 27 Feb 2019)

Match won by Steve Baker. Result: 15-7,15-5,15-9.

Starting level for Steve Baker: 2,324, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Freer: 1,426, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Steve Baker to win as he is currently playing 63% better than David Freer.

Steve Baker won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 114% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Baker played 114% better than David Freer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steve Baker actually played at a level of 2,665 and David Freer at a level of 1,244. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Baker changes to +10.3% and David Freer changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Baker becomes +4.8% and for David Freer becomes -6.1%.

Given Steve Baker's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 45% has been applied to his level change.

Given David Freer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Steve Baker is +1.3% and for David Freer is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Baker: 92%, David Freer: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Baker: 81%, David Freer: 77%.

Final level for Steve Baker: 2,355, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for David Freer: 1,397, level confidence: 77%.