Steve Baker v David Freer (Wed 27 Feb 2019)
Match won by Steve Baker. Result: 15-7,15-5,15-9.
Starting level for
Steve Baker:
2,324, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for
David Freer:
1,426, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Steve Baker to win as he is currently playing
63% better than David Freer.
Steve Baker won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 114% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Baker played
114% better than David Freer in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steve Baker actually played at a level of
2,665 and David Freer at a level of
1,244. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Baker changes to +10.3% and David Freer changes to -11%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Baker becomes +4.8% and for David Freer becomes -6.1%.
Given Steve Baker's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 45% has been applied to his level change.
Given David Freer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Steve Baker is +1.3% and for David Freer is -2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Baker: 92%, David Freer: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Baker: 81%, David Freer: 77%.
Final level for Steve Baker:
2,355, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for David Freer:
1,397, level confidence: 77%.