Barry Carson v Rick Scannell (Wed 27 Feb 2019)
Match won by Barry Carson. Result: 3-0.
Starting level for
Barry Carson:
409, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Rick Scannell:
282, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Barry Carson to win as he is currently playing
45% better than Rick Scannell.
Barry Carson won all of the games. There are no points scores.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Barry Carson actually played at a level of
449 and Rick Scannell at a level of
257. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.8% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.1% and 8.1% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 4.6%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Barry Carson changes to +4.6% and Rick Scannell changes to -4.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Barry Carson becomes +3.8% and for Rick Scannell becomes -3.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Barry Carson is +1.9% and for Rick Scannell is -1.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Barry Carson: 85%, Rick Scannell: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Barry Carson: 77%, Rick Scannell: 79%.
Final level for Barry Carson:
417, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Rick Scannell:
277, level confidence: 79%.