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Ray Owens v Simon Eyles (Wed 27 Feb 2019)

Match won by Simon Eyles. Result: 1-3.

Starting level for Ray Owens: 254, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Simon Eyles: 445, level confidence: 59%.
Simon Eyles to win as he is currently playing 75% better than Ray Owens.

Simon Eyles won 75% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

As Simon Eyles has played below his allowed range at 337, his level reduction is 6.1% before damping. On the assumption that Simon Eyles would normally have been playing at level 408 (based on typical behaviour), Ray Owens played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.5% and 9.9% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 7.8%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Eyles changes to -3.6% and Ray Owens changes to +6.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Eyles becomes -3.4% and for Ray Owens becomes +4.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Simon Eyles is -1.6% and for Ray Owens is +2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Eyles: 77%, Ray Owens: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Eyles: 65%, Ray Owens: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ray Owens: 260, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Simon Eyles: 439, level confidence: 65%.