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James Mortimer v David Channon (Wed 27 Feb 2019)

Match won by James Mortimer. Result: 3-1.

Starting level for James Mortimer: 212, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Channon: 122, level confidence: 68%.
James Mortimer to win as he is currently playing 74% better than David Channon.

James Mortimer won 75% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

As James Mortimer has played below his allowed range at 162, his level reduction is 5.9% before damping. On the assumption that James Mortimer would normally have been playing at level 195 (based on typical behaviour), David Channon played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.5% and 9.7% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 7.7%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Mortimer changes to -3.2% and David Channon changes to +7.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Mortimer becomes -3.1% and for David Channon becomes +5.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for James Mortimer is -1.5% and for David Channon is +2.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Mortimer: 87%, David Channon: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Mortimer: 74%, David Channon: 70%.

Final level for James Mortimer: 209, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for David Channon: 125, level confidence: 70%.