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James Mortimer v Gagan Rajwadha (Wed 27 Feb 2019)

Match won by James Mortimer. Result: 3-0.

Starting level for James Mortimer: 209, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Gagan Rajwadha: 145, level confidence: 59%.
James Mortimer to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Gagan Rajwadha.

James Mortimer won all of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Mortimer actually played at a level of 230 and Gagan Rajwadha at a level of 132. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.4% and 8.4% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 4.7%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Mortimer changes to +3.8% and Gagan Rajwadha changes to -4.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Mortimer becomes +3.4% and for Gagan Rajwadha becomes -3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for James Mortimer is +1.7% and for Gagan Rajwadha is -1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Mortimer: 86%, Gagan Rajwadha: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Mortimer: 78%, Gagan Rajwadha: 70%.

Final level for James Mortimer: 213, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Gagan Rajwadha: 142, level confidence: 70%.