James Mortimer v Zoe Buch (Wed 27 Feb 2019)
Match won by James Mortimer. Result: 3-0.
Starting level for
James Mortimer:
212, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Zoe Buch:
89, level confidence: 65%.
James Mortimer to win as he is currently playing
138% better than Zoe Buch.
James Mortimer won all of the games. There are no points scores.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that James Mortimer was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 132 and 212 without affecting his level.
In this case, James Mortimer played at level 165 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that James Mortimer would normally have been playing at level 176 (based on typical behaviour), Zoe Buch played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.2%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.9% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 2.2%.
As this result doesn't have points scores, the difference in levels is significant and the match was a straight games win, leave the levels unchanged. Provide points scores if you can!
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Mortimer: 88%, Zoe Buch: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Mortimer: 76%, Zoe Buch: 69%.
Final level for James Mortimer:
212, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Zoe Buch:
89, level confidence: 69%.