SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Leslie Callow v Fraser Dorling (Tue 26 Feb 2019)

Match won by Leslie Callow. Result: 15-5,15-7,11-15,13-15,15-11.

Starting level for Leslie Callow: 794, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Fraser Dorling: 410, level confidence: 66%.
Leslie Callow to win as he is currently playing 94% better than Fraser Dorling.

Leslie Callow won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leslie Callow played 15% better than Fraser Dorling in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Leslie Callow was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 606 and 794 without affecting his level.

As Leslie Callow has played below his allowed range at 535, his level reduction is 13% before damping. On the assumption that Leslie Callow would normally have been playing at level 704 (based on typical behaviour), Fraser Dorling played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 22%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.4% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leslie Callow changes to -7.9% and Fraser Dorling changes to +15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leslie Callow becomes -5.5% and for Fraser Dorling becomes +9.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Leslie Callow is -4% and for Fraser Dorling is +6.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leslie Callow: 88%, Fraser Dorling: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leslie Callow: 68%, Fraser Dorling: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leslie Callow: 762, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Fraser Dorling: 437, level confidence: 62%.