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Lewis Walters v Chris Simpson (Wed 27 Feb 2019)

Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 11-13,11-6,12-10,14-16,11-13.

Starting level for Lewis Walters: 18,563, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Chris Simpson: 35,216, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing 90% better than Lewis Walters.

Chris Simpson won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played 7% better than Lewis Walters in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Chris Simpson was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 27,320 and 35,216 without affecting his level.

As Chris Simpson has played below his allowed range at 23,303, his level reduction is 17% before damping. On the assumption that Chris Simpson would normally have been playing at level 31,458 (based on typical behaviour), Lewis Walters played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 26%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to -7.9% and Lewis Walters changes to +18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes -2.1% and for Lewis Walters becomes +4.4%.

Given Chris Simpson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 62% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Lewis Walters's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 37% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Chris Simpson is -1% and for Lewis Walters is +2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 90%, Lewis Walters: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 67%, Lewis Walters: 55%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lewis Walters: 19,023, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Chris Simpson: 34,898, level confidence: 67%.