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Chris Cave v Jon Shepherd (Thu 28 Feb 2019)

Match won by Chris Cave. Result: 11-15,15-11,15-3,15-8.

Starting level for Chris Cave: 1,767, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jon Shepherd: 1,427, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Chris Cave to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Jon Shepherd.

Chris Cave won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 51% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Cave played 34% better than Jon Shepherd in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Cave actually played at a level of 1,836 and Jon Shepherd at a level of 1,373. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.5% and 3.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Cave changes to +3.5% and Jon Shepherd changes to -3.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Cave becomes +2.6% and for Jon Shepherd becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Chris Cave is +1.9% and for Jon Shepherd is -2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Cave: 87%, Jon Shepherd: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Cave: 84%, Jon Shepherd: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Cave: 1,799, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Jon Shepherd: 1,396, level confidence: 85%.