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Leslie Callow v Edward Winter (Sat 02 Mar 2019)

Match won by Edward Winter. Result: 11-15,13-15,6-15.

Starting level for Leslie Callow: 767, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Edward Winter: 1,594, level confidence: 50%.
Edward Winter to win as he is currently playing 108% better than Leslie Callow.

Edward Winter won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edward Winter played 52% better than Leslie Callow in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Edward Winter was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,195 and 1,594 without affecting his level.

As Edward Winter has played below his allowed range at 1,179, his level reduction is 1.4% before damping. On the assumption that Edward Winter would normally have been playing at level 1,380 (based on typical behaviour), Leslie Callow played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 6.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edward Winter changes to -0.9% and Leslie Callow changes to +4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edward Winter becomes -0.8% and for Leslie Callow becomes +3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty Masters 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edward Winter: 71%, Leslie Callow: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edward Winter: 60%, Leslie Callow: 70%.

Final level for Leslie Callow: 796, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Edward Winter: 1,582, level confidence: 60%.