Mark Francis v David Wallond (Sat 02 Mar 2019)
Match won by David Wallond. Result: 12-15,8-15,10-15.
Starting level for
Mark Francis:
1,463, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for
David Wallond:
3,075, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
David Wallond to win as he is currently playing
110% better than Mark Francis.
David Wallond won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Wallond played
52% better than Mark Francis in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that David Wallond was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,207 and 3,075 without affecting his level.
In this case, David Wallond played at level 2,426 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that David Wallond would normally have been playing at level 2,653 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Francis played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.4%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Wallond changes to 0% and Mark Francis changes to +5.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Wallond becomes 0% and for Mark Francis becomes +3.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2018/19' so the adjustment for David Wallond is 0% and for Mark Francis is +2.7%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Wallond: 84%, Mark Francis: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Wallond: 72%, Mark Francis: 79%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mark Francis:
1,500, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for David Wallond:
3,070, level confidence: 72%.