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Duncan Howorth v John Hughes (Sat 02 Mar 2019)

Match won by John Hughes. Result: 15-17,8-15,16-14,10-15.

Starting level for Duncan Howorth: 1,573, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for John Hughes: 2,154, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
John Hughes to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Duncan Howorth.

John Hughes won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John Hughes played 25% better than Duncan Howorth in this match.

As John Hughes has played below his allowed range at 1,985, his level reduction is 1.1% before damping. On the assumption that John Hughes would normally have been playing at level 2,087 (based on typical behaviour), Duncan Howorth played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 2.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Hughes changes to -0.9% and Duncan Howorth changes to +2.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John Hughes becomes -0.7% and for Duncan Howorth becomes +2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2018/19' so the adjustment for John Hughes is -0.5% and for Duncan Howorth is +1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Hughes: 87%, Duncan Howorth: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Hughes: 83%, Duncan Howorth: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Duncan Howorth: 1,597, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for John Hughes: 2,140, level confidence: 83%.