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Oscar Hill v Neal Brooker (Sun 03 Feb 2019)

Match won by Neal Brooker. Result: 6-11,7-11.

Starting level for Oscar Hill: 4,833, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Neal Brooker: 9,390, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Neal Brooker to win as he is currently playing 94% better than Oscar Hill.

Neal Brooker won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 69% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neal Brooker played 69% better than Oscar Hill in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Neal Brooker was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 7,370 and 9,390 without affecting his level.

In this case, Neal Brooker played at level 8,249 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Neal Brooker would normally have been playing at level 8,319 (based on typical behaviour), Oscar Hill played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.6% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neal Brooker changes to 0% and Oscar Hill changes to +0.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neal Brooker becomes 0% and for Oscar Hill becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'One Day Challenge' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neal Brooker: 91%, Oscar Hill: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neal Brooker: 85%, Oscar Hill: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oscar Hill: 4,839, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Neal Brooker: 9,376, level confidence: 85%.