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Oscar Hill v Callum Greasley (Sun 03 Feb 2019)

Match won by Oscar Hill. Result: 11-2,9-11,12-10,7-11,13-11.

Starting level for Oscar Hill: 4,841, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Callum Greasley: 4,800, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Oscar Hill to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Callum Greasley.

Oscar Hill won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oscar Hill played 11% better than Callum Greasley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oscar Hill actually played at a level of 5,088 and Callum Greasley at a level of 4,567. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oscar Hill changes to +5.1% and Callum Greasley changes to -4.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oscar Hill becomes +2.4% and for Callum Greasley becomes -2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'One Day Challenge' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oscar Hill: 83%, Callum Greasley: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oscar Hill: 79%, Callum Greasley: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oscar Hill: 4,948, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Callum Greasley: 4,684, level confidence: 82%.