Slade John v David Wallond (Sun 03 Mar 2019)
Match won by David Wallond. Result: 7-15,9-15,12-15.
Starting level for
Slade John:
1,412, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for
David Wallond:
3,067, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
David Wallond to win as he is currently playing
117% better than Slade John.
David Wallond won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Wallond played
61% better than Slade John in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that David Wallond was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,237 and 3,067 without affecting his level.
In this case, David Wallond played at level 2,438 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that David Wallond would normally have been playing at level 2,619 (based on typical behaviour), Slade John played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.4%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Wallond changes to 0% and Slade John changes to +5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Wallond becomes 0% and for Slade John becomes +3.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty Masters 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Wallond: 84%, Slade John: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Wallond: 73%, Slade John: 60%.
Final level for Slade John:
1,461, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for David Wallond:
3,067, level confidence: 73%.