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Alan Clyne v Daniel Mekbib (Mon 25 Feb 2019)

Match won by Alan Clyne. Result: 11-9,11-4,8-11,11-2.

Starting level for Alan Clyne: 35,191, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Daniel Mekbib: 27,336, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Alan Clyne to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Daniel Mekbib.

Alan Clyne won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Clyne played 36% better than Daniel Mekbib in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Clyne actually played at a level of 36,142 and Daniel Mekbib at a level of 26,617. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 2.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Clyne changes to +2.4% and Daniel Mekbib changes to -2.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Clyne becomes +0.9% and for Daniel Mekbib becomes -0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Clyne: 82%, Daniel Mekbib: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Clyne: 80%, Daniel Mekbib: 84%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alan Clyne: 35,282, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Daniel Mekbib: 27,281, level confidence: 84%.