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Chris Simpson v Shahjahan Khan (Mon 25 Feb 2019)

Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 12-10,11-7,13-11.

Starting level for Chris Simpson: 34,613, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Shahjahan Khan: 22,222, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing 56% better than Shahjahan Khan.

Chris Simpson won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played 37% better than Shahjahan Khan in this match.

As Chris Simpson has played below his allowed range at 30,672, his level reduction is 0.5% before damping. On the assumption that Chris Simpson would normally have been playing at level 32,670 (based on typical behaviour), Shahjahan Khan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 2.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to -0.4% and Shahjahan Khan changes to +2.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes -0.1% and for Shahjahan Khan becomes +1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 93%, Shahjahan Khan: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 87%, Shahjahan Khan: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Simpson: 34,389, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Shahjahan Khan: 22,579, level confidence: 80%.